The North Texas housing market is downshifting quickly, with Dallas-Fort Worth being the only U.S. market to see a decrease in home sale prices last month, according to a report released today. DFW home prices are down 1.9% year over year in July, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.
And what a difference a month makes. Last month, DFW led the U.S. for home price increases, with June prices up 29.3% over the previous year. In hard numbers, home sales prices in DFW fell to $413,900 in July from $422,000 in July 2021. Homes in DFW spend an average of 23 days on the market before selling.
Higher interest rates and inflation, as well as record home prices, triggered a sharp drop in demand for housing, said Todd Luong, a realtor with Re/Max DFW Associates: "Here at our Re/Max office in Dallas-Fort Worth, our listings are currently getting on average 2.7 showings per week," Luong said. "Last year, at this same time, our listings were earning on average 5.9 showings per week. That is a huge drop in buyer demand compared to the previous year. Record home prices and higher mortgage rates have forced many potential buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers."
While the latest trends may disappoint some sellers, buyers now have more choices and better opportunities for good deals, Luong said. Luong said that the DFW housing market has been challenged with low inventory for years and reached an all-time low earlier this year, with only a two-week supply. Now, however, inventory is increasing. "Although buyers have more choices now, it is still not a balanced market as we only have about a two-month housing supply," Luong said. "In a normal market, you have about a five to six-month supply of housing."
A new report from Zillow also found falling home values, although the numbers didn't match Re/Max's precisely because of different study methods and different geographic definitions of DFW as a metro area, among other reasons. According to Zillow's findings, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area's typical home value is $396,904, down 1.1% since June, the first month of decline. Values are up 55.4% since July 2019.
Zillow also reported that the mortgage payment on a typical home in DFW is $2,633 a month, including taxes and insurance. That's up 77.4% compared to July 2019.
According to Zillow, inventory in DFW has risen 10.2% since June, and the share of listings with a price cut in July was 22%, compared to 15.6% in June. Nationwide, after two years of unprecedented growth, home values fell for the first time since 2012 as competition for houses eased, according to Zillow's July market report.
The slowdown is being driven by decreased competition among buyers. Zillow's analysis says that affordability pressures have pushed many to the sidelines, and buyers are waiting in the wings to resume their search if and when prices relax a bit. Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, called the flattening of home values "a badly needed rebalancing. This slowdown is about discouraged buyers pulling back after the affordability shock from higher rates," Olsen said. "As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to 'normal.'"
Luong said he sees positive signs in the market. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 5% after peaking in June. More than 290,000 new jobs were added in Dallas-Fort Worth last year, so North Texas has one of the strongest labor markets in the country. "Reasonably priced homes that are in good condition and move-in ready are still selling very fast," he said. "However, the bidding wars have subsided considerably across the board."
Almost 60,000 more single-family homes for the DFW area
Housing starts climbed by more than 20% in 2021 across North Texas, hitting a new record level of over 58,000 units. The developers of the sprawling residential communities that most of those homes are being built in are busy making room for more. The Dallas Business Journal, with input from Dallas-based housing market analysis firm Residential Strategies Inc., has compiled a list of a dozen of those developments to keep an eye on for the rest of this year and the next decade or so.
The list is not comprehensive, but the communities selected for this roundup were selected because they stand to have a major impact on their surrounding areas and shape how Dallas-Fort Worth morphs and where its people live for years to come. Presented in no particular order, the selections were limited to housing developments that are in early stages and phases:
The Elevon housing development will bring more than 4,500 single-family homes to 1,500 acres north of Wylie and partially within the Collin County city of Lavon. Work on the projected $2 billion community east of Plano started in early 2021 by Dallas-based MA Partners LLC. When completed, Elevon is designed for roughly 4,700 single-family homes, about 1,000 multifamily residences, an 80-acre business park and more than 100 acres of mixed-use construction. The 300-acre initial phase will have 1,000 homes. MA Partners has developed projects in North Texas, Austin and Houston, including communities the company has in progress in Dallas, Fort Worth and Melissa.
Cartwright Ranch, Crandall
Centurion American Development Group is developing Cartwright Ranch on more than 1,300 acres along Interstate 20 in the Kaufman County city of Crandall. Plans call for roughly 4,000 homes on the site near Terrell. Industrial and retail uses are also planned along with the single-family residential in the Farmers Branch-based Centurion American Development Group project.
Painted Tree, McKinney
The new Painted Tree residential community under development in McKinney will include about 3,400 residential homesites at full buildout ranging from detached townhomes and cottages to larger single-family homes and some custom homesites. Located north of U.S. Highway 380 near Lake Forest Boulevard, Painted Tree is one of the largest residential developments underway in North Texas. It will have 1,200 single-family homes for purchase in its first phase, and 275 built-to-rent homes will be part of the phase. Tom Woliver, co-president and founder of Dallas-based Oxland Advisors, the developers of Painted Tree, called it a record-breaking phase one delivery. "This may be the largest phase one in DFW in history," Woliver said. "It's a pretty aggressive phase one."
The homebuilder line-up for Painted Tree includes Trophy Signature Homes, Normandy Homes, CB Jeni Homes, Tri Pointe Homes, David Weekley Homes, Highland Homes and Drees Custom Homes. The 1,100-acre residential community is projected to open in 2022. Amenities at Painted Tree will include 25 miles of looped paths and trails, a 20-acre lake, 11.5-acre signature trailhead and community gathering space called "The Outpost," pools, parks, adventure playgrounds and more.
Hunter Ranch, Denton
Hillwood Communities plans to kick off construction later this year on the 3,200-acre Hunter Ranch development on Interstate 35W in Denton, which is master-planned for more than 6,000 houses. Located at I-35W and Robson Ranch Road in far southwest Denton, the property includes the landmark Pilot Knob rock outcropping, which Hillwood plans to protect with the buildout. The city of Denton has already zoned Hunter Ranch and the adjoining Cole Ranch to bring thousands of new homes to the area.
Hunter Ranch and Cole Ranch would encompass about 6,400 acres and bring a combined 19,350 new homes to Denton, boosting the city's housing stock by roughly 50 percent. Together, the development would include 12,900 single-family homes and 6,450 multifamily units, according to prior reports to Denton's City Council. In addition to 6,500 single-family home sites, Hunter Ranch is planned to have 3,500 multifamily units, about 4 million square feet of commercial construction along I-35W and about 1 million square feet of retail. Phase 1 will deliver some 800 lots in late 2023, according to Hillwood Communities' Fred Balda.
Prairie Ridge, Midlothian
The Prairie Ridge residential community under development near Midlothian will eventually add 4,600 homes to North Texas at full buildout. The 1,500-acre master-planned community is being developed by Dallas-based Provident Realty Advisors. The site is off U.S. Highway 287 near Midlothian. The community will have multiple amenity centers, swimming pools, walking trails and fishing ponds. Provident Realty also developed Paloma Creek off U.S. Highway 380 in Denton County, which now has more than 5,000 homes. Provident is also developing the Tavolo Park community in southwest Fort Worth.
Pecan Square, Northlake
Pecan Square in Northlake, developed by Hillwood Communities, is the youngest and most successful master-plan launch to date for the Dallas-based residential company, according to Fred Balda, president of Hillwood Communities. It continues to draw buyers with its Town Square concept and on-site co-working space, Balda said. Pecan Square sold 495 homes in 2021 and 509 the year prior, making it one of the top-selling master-planned communities in the nation in both years, according to John Burns Real Estate Consulting. More than 30,000 square feet of indoor/outdoor amenity space forms the heart of the $1.5 billion community, including a large former horse arena now repurposed as the event and sports hub for residents.
At buildout, the community will consist of more than 3,000 homes. It's being built on 1,157 acres near the southwest intersection of I-35W and FM 407 in Northlake. Builders include Ashton Woods, CalAtlantic Homes, DR Horton, David Weekley Homes, Highland Homes, Perry Homes, Plantation Homes and Pulte Homes. Hillwood's Union Park community in Little Elm also made the Burns list of top master-planned communities, with 460 homes sold in 2021 and 607 home sales in 2020.
Silo Mills, Godley
A partnership between Southlake-based Terra Manna and Prophet Equity broke ground late last year on the first phase of Silo Mills, an 840-acre master-planned community in Johnson County. Located on FM 917 and west of Chisholm Trail Parkway, the residential development is within the extraterritorial jurisdiction of Cleburne and Burleson. Silo Mills will offer 2,500 home sites upon buildout. The first phase will have 262 sites of 50-, 60- and 70-foot lots. Antares Homes and Bloomfield Homes are the designated homebuilders, and model homes are anticipated for spring 2022. Prices will start in the high $200,000s. The development will include a resort-style swimming and entertainment complex, parks and playgrounds, trails, water features and preserved green space. The Godley ISD will serve the families in Silo Mills, which will have a new elementary school.
Green Meadows, Celina
Tomlin Investments is building the $2 billion, 1,400-acre Green Meadows master-planned community on Legacy Drive one mile west of the planned Dallas North Tollway extension on the west side of Celina. Green Meadows will have more than 4,000 home sites at buildout. The first phase of homes is priced starting in the high $200,000s, and homebuilders on the project include Castlerock Communities, Gehan Homes, Pacesetter Homes and Stonehollow Homes. Green Meadows, located at Legacy Drive and Punk Carter Parkway, will have a 10,000-square-foot clubhouse with party rooms and a full kitchen, workout facility, a large covered patio, pool with two giant water slides, splash pool, large deck and playground.
Legacy Hills, Celina
The massive Legacy Hills community along the future extension of the Dallas North Tollway through Celina is expected to include 7,000 single-family homes. The development, spanning 3,200 acres, is also planned for 4,100 apartment units, 100 acres of commercial space, a 27-acre sports park, two Celina Independent School District schools, an extensive network of walking trails, seven amenity centers and a championship golf course. Centurion American Development Group out of Farmers Branch is tackling the project. Homebuilders committed to the Legacy Hills development include Ashton Woods, Beazer Homes, DR Horton, First Texas Homes, Lennar Homes, M/I Homes and Mattamy Homes.
Celina and Frisco, Prosper, Forney and Little Elm were some of the hottest markets in North Texas and the nation for new home construction last year. Last year, Celina, the top residential construction market in North Texas, issued 2,516 building permits in 2021, up 35% from the 1,862 issued in 2020, which was up 49% from the 1,862 permits in 2019.
Prosper-based Tellus Group has purchased 686 acres in Celina for a new $1.5 billion master-planned community called Mosaic, which will have roughly 3,000 higher-end homes. The Mosaic property is immediately north of Windsong Ranch in Denton County, just off Frontier Parkway. It's nine miles southwest of downtown Celina and roughly one mile from the Dallas North Tollway.
The community will have a nature-inspired lifestyle theme to encourage residents to connect with the world around them, said Craig Martin, president and founding partner of Prosper-based Tellus Group LLC. "We have a long track record for developing residential communities of the highest quality while maintaining a commitment to environmental stewardship, value investing and thoughtful land planning," Martin said. Tellus is perhaps best known for developing Windsong Ranch in Prosper, which boasts a large freshwater lagoon surrounded by white sandy beach as an amenity.
Rolling V Ranch, Rhome
The sprawling Rolling V Ranch residential development northwest of Fort Worth will accommodate 12,500 homes. Dallas-based PMB Capital Investments has acquired more than 3,400 acres of land for the project near the intersections of State Highway 114 and U.S. 287 in Wise County, with sections of the property in the towns of Rhome and Newark. In addition to the homes, the project includes over 300 acres of commercial property. The development is estimated to take 30-plus years to build out fully.
Monterra is a 231-acre master-planned residential community in Fate, one of the fastest-growing cities in Rockwall County and the state. The property, purchased by Dallas-based Wynne/Jackson real estate development firm in the third quarter of 2021, is located on Ben Payne Road, which runs perpendicular to Interstate 30 and provides direct access to the I-30 frontage road. The total project will consist of about 650 lots ranging in size from 50-feet wide to 70-feet wide. Development began in late 2021 on the project's initial phase, which includes about 250 lots and the amenity center and the initial trail system. Homebuilders in the project include K.Hovnanian Homes, Grand Homes, Highland Homes and David Weekley Homes, according to Wynne/Jackson.
After weeks or months of browsing Dallas homes for sale, visiting open houses, negotiating with sellers, and dealing with the exhausting relocation tasks, you're finally in your new home. It's time to make your new place feel like home and settle into your new surroundings. For some people, this could fall into place when your new neighbors see your moving truck, but in most cases, you have to put in work to get acquainted with your new surroundings. All it takes is a positive attitude and willingness to make it work out. Here is our real estate agent's list of 5 top strategies to help you get familiar with your new neighborhood.
As stressful as moving can be, getting to know your new neighborhood is an amazing opportunity to welcome new friends, find new passions, and explore the world with a fresh set of eyes. Still looking at Fort Worth homes for sale and aren't sure if you've found your dream spot? Our team can help. Contact us today for more information.
The Dallas-Fort Worth median home price surpassed the $350,000 mark for the first time, but some signs nationally indicate the red-hot market is cooling.
The current median home sale price in DFW is $351,750, up 11.8 percent over last year, according to the RE/MAX national housing report released today. DFW home sales are up 23.7 percent over last year. May homes sold faster than April, with an average of 24 days on the market, according to the report.
Nationally, there are signs the market may be cooling, with May home sales down slightly compared to April. In DFW, however, May sales are up slightly compared to April.
At RE/MAX DFW Associates, the number of closed transactions from one year prior rose 64 percent in May, according to broker Mark Wolfe, who owns the company. Total closed volume was up a record 94 percent, he said. And already, the company is breaking new records in June. "This unprecedented market continues with each month surpassing the record from the previous month," Wolfe said. "My concern is rising inflation – home prices, car sales and cost of goods. Certainly, interest rates will begin to rise."
Nationally, the typical May ramp-up in home sales didn't happen last month, as sales dipped 0.2 percent from April and home prices were uncharacteristically flat in the report's 53 metro areas. Also defying the trend: A 7.1 percent drop in listed homes at a time of year when active inventory is normally building for peak summer sales months.
Other metrics, however, indicate that the lopsided sellers' market continues. Months supply of inventory nationwide dropped to 1.1 months and homes changed hands in just 28 days. Both are records in the 13-year history of the RE/MAX report.
While Dallas-Fort Worth's sales price increase of almost 12 percent year over year is significant, it's far less than many other places.
Believe it or not, the whole Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is home to more mini-millionaires than the entire population of Plano. In fact, DFW now ranks among the world's top 10 metros for the number of high-net-worth individuals. A new ranking from Wealth-X, which collects and analyzes data about the world's wealthiest people, puts DFW at No. 10 globally for the population of high-net-worth (HNW) individuals, defined as those with a net worth of $1 million to $30 million. (In other words, Alice Walton, Jerry Jones, and Andy Beal are way too rich for this list.)
For 2018, Wealth-X tallied 298,220 HNW individuals in Dallas-Fort Worth, up slightly from 297,935 the previous year. By comparison, the population of Plano was 286,143 in 2017, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. DFW is the only Texas metro to appear in Wealth-X's top 10. "With the addition of [the] Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, the U.S. now includes six of the top 10 cities in our ranking," Wealth-X says. Sitting atop the ranking is the New York City metro area, home to nearly 1 million HNW individuals. Elsewhere in the U.S., Los Angeles stands at No. 3, Chicago at No. 6, San Francisco at No. 9, Washington, D.C., at No. 9, and Dallas-Fort Worth at No. 10.
Chances are, you'll find many of DFW's HNW individuals in the region's richest ZIP codes, particularly Highland Park and University Park. Highland Park is No. 9 among the country's wealthiest ZIP codes, and University Park is No. 7, according to a 2018 analysis by Bloomberg. According to data released in 2018 by Charles Schwab's Modern Wealth Index, DFW residents say it takes a net worth of $2.4 million to be considered wealthy and $1.3 million to feel financially comfortable. According to the 2018 Knight Frank City Wealth Index, Dallas ranks seventh globally for the most households (297,970) earning at least $250,000 in 2017, just behind Houston at No. 6 (298,868 households).
Dallas is projected to rank 10th for the growth of households earning at least $250,000, adding 58,575 such households from 2017 to 2022, the index says. By comparison, Houston is forecast to hold down the No. 9 position, adding 71,211 of those households during the same five-year span.
While many people across the U.S. have traditionally enjoyed the perks of an urban lifestyle, some who live in more populated city limits today are beginning to rethink their current neighborhoods. Being in close proximity to everything from the grocery store to local entertainment is definitely a perk, especially if you can also walk to some of these hot spots and have a short commute to work. The trade-off, however, is that highly populated cities can lack access to open space, a yard, and other desirable features. These are the kinds of things you may miss when spending a lot of time at home. When it comes to social distancing, as we've experienced recently, the newest trend seems to be around re-evaluating a once-desired city lifestyle and trading it for suburban or rural living.
George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com notes:
"With the re-opening of the economy scheduled to be cautious, the impact on consumer preferences will likely shift buying behavior…consumers are already looking for larger homes, bigger yards, access to the outdoors and more separation from neighbors. As we move into the recovery stage, these preferences will play an important role in the type of homes consumers will want to buy. They will also play a role in the coming discussions on zoning and urban planning. While higher density has been a hallmark of urban development over the past decade, the pandemic may lead to a re-thinking of space allocation."
The Harris Poll recently surveyed 2,000 Americans, and 39% of the respondents who live in urban areas indicated the COVID-19 crisis has caused them to consider moving to a less populated area.
Today, moving outside the city limits is also more feasible than ever, especially as Americans have quickly become more accustomed to – and more accepting of – remote work. According to the Pew Research Center, access to the Internet has increased significantly in rural and suburban areas, making working from home more accessible. The number of people working from home has also spiked considerably, even before the pandemic came into play this year.
If you have a home in the suburbs or a rural area, you may see an increasing number of buyers looking for a property like yours. If you're thinking of buying and don't mind a commute to work for the well-being of your family, you may want to consider looking at homes for sale outside the city. Contact a local real estate professional today to discuss the options available in your area.
Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. fears home sales might slow next year in the ramp up to presidential and congressional elections. "We typically have much slower selling seasons right before an election," she said. "After that happens, the flood gates open and people come out. It's not a matter of who wins." Worries about a recession may also impact the home market. "We spent the better part of the last decade still looking over our shoulder," said George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com. "The last recession was so bad that we are still carrying some of the scars from that." However, Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University states that Texas economy is still expanding. "And we are extremely unlikely to be in a recession by the end of this calendar year," he said. "We are probably pretty safe through the first six months of next year."
The number of homes listed for sale with North Texas real estate agents has risen by about 15% this year. But they aren't in the price range most buyers want. "The inventory is increasing at the upper end — $750,000 and above," Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University said. "If you have a well-located $300,000 house, you can sell it tomorrow. We are seeing evidence of price fatigue in the market." D-FW home prices are up only about 3% so far in 2019 — nothing like the double-digit percentage home price gains of a couple of years ago. "The recent spike in mortgage rates did expose how price sensitive the market is," said Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. "Things are not quite as rosy as they seem in terms of what people can afford." Many home sellers haven't gotten the message, she said. "They want to list their house for more than their neighbors sold for and sell it overnight." D-FW has an undersupply of homes priced below $250.000.
If you're looking into purchasing a home in Dallas, then one of the big questions you'll have to ask yourself is whether or not to buy in a neighborhood with a homeowners association. Our real estate agents are familiar with HOAs and have put together this handy guide on choosing a Dallas neighborhood with one—and the pros and cons that go along with it.
By design, pretty much any HOA worth its mettle focuses on making life in a neighborhood easier, simpler, and more uniform for its homeowners. In most situations, the pros of joining an HOA or buying in an HOA-run neighborhood usually far outweigh the cons. Here's why you want to join an HOA:
While HOAs have many positives, there can be some negatives. Some things you should be aware of before committing to a neighborhood with an HOA:
The economy generated a stronger than expected 263,000 new jobs in April, helping to drive down the unemployment rate to a 49-year low of 3.6%. The increase in new jobs easily topped the 217,000 MarketWatch forecast. The jobless rate slid from 3.8% in March to hit the lowest level since December 1969. The average wage paid to American workers rose 6 cents, or 0.2%, to $27.77 an hour. The 12-month rate of hourly wage gains was unchanged at 3.2%. Hours worked each week fell 0.1 hour in April to 34.4. The government revised the increase in new jobs in March to 189,000 from a preliminary 196,000. February's gain was raised to 56,000 from 33,000.
Latinos are finding their economic legs under the Trump administration, leading the surge in home ownership and income growth and record low poverty rates, according to two comprehensive new surveys. While they remain far behind whites in income, they have seen their third consecutive year of income growth and have a higher workplace participation rate, according to the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate Professionals and the Hispanic Wealth Project.
In two studies just released, the groups also provided revealing details about Latinos and their growth in America. For example, by 2060, nearly one of every three in the U.S. will identify as Latino. The reports detailed Hispanic housing and economic trends and found most signs rapidly improving. What's more, the group's goal of nudging overall Hispanic income up is showing signs of success. The group said that within the next five years, Hispanic median income will triple.
The group listed the positive trends in its income report:
It is only a matter of time, and possibly within 15 years, that Dallas metro will surpass Chicago metro in population. The latest U.S. census figures released this past week show that based on early 2018 figures, Dallas metro reached 7,539,711 residents, gaining 165,000 over 2017. Chicago dropped for the fifth year in a row, and is now below 9.5 million at 9,498,716. Using the same statistics for 2019, it is expected that when figures are released, Dallas could top 7.7 million, and Chicago drop again, probably to around 9.45 million. The three largest groups moving to Dallas in ranking order are Asian, White and Hispanic.
Dallas is one of the U.S. metro areas where rising home prices have hurt homeownership the most. Dallas, Denver and Houston were identified as the markets where there is the most downward pressure on homeownership, according to a new report by Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University faculty. The study ranked areas where the markets have tilted in favor of renting over buying homes. Researchers traced housing conditions in 23 markets for the report. Dallas was the most unfavorable for homeownership among the cities surveyed. "Of the metros in our index, Dallas is the highest and exhibiting the greatest downward pressure on the demand for homeownership," said Ken Johnson, real estate economist in FAU's College of Business. "The extraordinary appreciation in the area is a major driver of this score." Dallas' housing market has taken off since the Great Recession, with soaring prices.
SOURCE: Meyers Research
Dallas and Houston are the hottest spots in the country for millennial homebuyers. That's what analysts at California-based Meyers Research found in their annual "millennial desirability index" that rated the country's largest housing markets. Austin ranked third on the same list, which compared data on housing affordability, job growth, cost of living and other factors for major metro areas across the country. Meyers Research's director of research, Ali Wolf, said factors such as Texas' relatively low new home prices, strong economy and high quality of life push the state's major cities to the top of the list. Job opportunities, affordability and lifestyle were key factors millennials said they would consider in moving to a new city. Meyers' study is one of two recent studies that give North Texas high marks for first-time homebuyers.
The latest North Texas housing market numbers are not very encouraging, to say the least. Home sales were down in many Dallas-Fort Worth neighborhoods in February, and median home sales prices dropped for the first time since 2008-2009 in both Dallas and Rockwall counties. Dallas County home sales prices fell 2.5 percent in February from a year ago, according to the latest figures from the MetroTex Association of Realtors. Median sales prices slid 4.5 percent in Rockwall County. Collin and Denton counties eked out tiny year-over-year home price gains last month — less that 1 percent ahead of February 2018. The only solid home price gain in the region came in Tarrant County, where houses are still relatively affordable. Lower and moderate-priced house sales are still strong while purchases of expensive properties have lagged.
In Dallas County, home sales by real estate agents fell more than 12 percent in January from the same month in 2018. Sales were down almost 13 percent in Denton County and down 10.5 percent year-over-year in Collin County. The smallest sales decline was in Tarrant County — 8.5 percent — where a larger inventory of more affordable houses on the market has made purchase activity stronger. Real estate agents are scrambling to adjust to the downshift in the local home market. "We are being realistic with our sellers, telling them you need to price your house at what it will sell for," said Cathy Mitchell, 2019 president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors. "I think this market correction is good for us." There was about a four-month supply of houses on the market in North Texas at the end of January.
A flood of North Texas houses hitting the market in January means it will take longer to sell a Dallas-Fort Worth home. The number of houses up for sale in Dallas County rose more than 43 percent in January compared with a year earlier, according to the latest numbers from the MetroTex Association of Realtors. Home listings were also up by more than 42 percent in Denton County and were 37 percent higher than a year ago in Collin County.
The wave of properties hitting the market comes at a time when home sales in the area are declining and price increases have evaporated. At the end of last month, there were almost 22,000 houses listed for sale with North Texas real estate agents — the largest January inventory in six years. More than 10,000 additional home listings hit the market in January alone. Real estate agents are warning sellers not to expect a quick sale like the market was seeing few years ago. "You can't expect to get 30 offers in 30 minutes," said Cathy Mitchell, 2019 president of the MetroTex Association of Realtors. "It's a market correction — we couldn't be sustainable the way the market was."
It's no secret that Dallas' home market has a winter chill.Home sales have slowed, along with the rate of home price increase in North Texas.The market changes have put Dallas on Realtor.com's list of the 10 cities hit hardest by a housing slowdown."In the last few months, the real estate market has actually begun slowing down. including in some of the big cities that have been leading the go-go post-recession housing boom," according to a report on the website. "To be clear, prices aren't always dropping in these places, which are predominantly located on the West Coast."Mostly, they're decelerating, coming back down to earth."
Realtor.com based its rankings on a year-over-year rise in home price markdowns, increases in listings and changes in overall list prices."There's a rebalancing that needs to happen," Len Kiefer, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac, told Realtor.com. "Prices have risen so high in some of these markets that it's very tough from an affordability perspective [for buyers]. ... It's not surprising to me that we're seeing a little bit of a leveling off."
Median home prices in North Texas are still up about 5 percent compared with 2017 levels. But that's a much smaller number than the double-digit annual gains seen in recent years. Home list prices in the Dallas area are down 1.4 percent from a year ago, and the number of listings has grown 15 percent year over year, according to Realtor.com
The declines in D-FW home sales and slower price appreciation are having a bigger impact on consumers' attitudes than their pocketbooks, analysts said. "I am more concerned about the psychological impact of not-so-rosy housing news than I am about the actual underlying fundamentals of the housing market in the Dallas-Fort Worth market," said Daren Blomquist, top economist with Attom Data Solutions. "Certainly the data shows that the market has gotten somewhat overheated and is due for a slowdown, but that slowdown should just be a chance for the market to catch its breath rather than a trigger a panic attack. "Jobs and people are still moving to the Dallas-Fort Worth area in large numbers, which ultimately should keep demand for housing solid," Blomquist said. "But the psychology of the market is more of a wild card and could result in a bigger slowdown or correction."
North Texas home sales would be higher if there were more moderately priced properties up for grabs, Paige Shipp of housing analyst Metrostudy Inc. said. "I believe the 1 percent decrease in sales this year is due to the lack of homes on the market below $200,000, not a lack of buyers," Shipp said. "D-FW has strong job and population growth, which equates to demand for homes. "However, the increasing interest rates have exposed the fact that D-FW buyers cannot all afford homes priced above $400,000, she said.
Dallas-area home prices grew less than 5 percent in August from a year earlier, according to the latest nationwide comparison. It was the first time in almost six years that Dallas-area home appreciation has been at such a low level in the closely-watched Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index. "Following reports that home sales are flat to down, price gains are beginning to moderate," S&P's David M. Blitzer said in the report. "The seasonally adjusted monthly data show that 10 cities experienced declining prices. Other housing data tell a similar story: prices and sales of new single family homes are weakening, housing starts are mixed and residential fixed investment is down in the last three quarters."
Home prices in North Texas have cooled in 2018 after years of double-digit percentage annual gains. Still, Dallas-area prices are about 45 percent higher than a decade ago, before the economic downturn and housing crash. "There are no signs that the current weakness will become a repeat of the crisis," Blitzer said. "Without a collapse in housing finance like the one seen 12 years ago, a crash in home prices is unlikely."
The slowdown in home price growth may be good news for potential buyers who have struggled to find homes they can afford. "It's more welcome news for would-be homebuyers, who must be breathing a collective sigh of relief that home price growth finally has slowed," Skylar Olsen, Zillow's director of economic research, said in a statement. "Softening appreciation after the rapid growth of just a few months earlier is a sign that fierce competition is dying down. Potential buyers who were intimidated during the heat of the market may find the breathing space now to make a calm, considered decision about whether to lock in a mortgage before rates rise further."
By Claire Ballor – Staff Writer, Dallas Business Journal, October 10, 2018
With a relatively low cost of living and population growth projections that outstrip other U.S. cities by two times, Dallas-Fort Worth has been named the top real estate market to watch in 2019.
The Emerging Trends in Real Estate for 2019 report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute ranked the Metroplex as the number one market for overall real estate prospects in 2019 out of 78 other cities. Austin and San Antonio also made it into the top 20 for overall real estate prospects in the annual forecast report, which is compiled from thousands of interviews with real estate experts across a spectrum of industries.
Mitch Roschelle, a partner at PwC, said the economic data points analyzed for the report suggest the strength of the economy and the discipline being practiced in the real estate market. "If there is a downturn ahead of us, it won't be real estate that caused it," he said. "Right now there's way more discipline in all activities in real estate than there has been in any other time in the modern era. We haven't gotten ahead of ourselves in terms of real estate development. I hope that real estate folks remain as conservative as they have in creating new supply."
Roschelle said he's seeing that conservative behavior in Dallas-Fort Worth and it has kept the market from getting ahead of itself despite the ever-growing demand and push for growth.
As for what makes North Texas the one to watch next year, he said several factors come into play.
"The things that have been important in years past have been markets that have low cost of living and low, relative to the national average, cost of doing business. That's where companies want to be and that's where people want to be," Roschelle said.
The low cost of living, low cost of doing business and tax efficiency continue to draw people to Dallas-Fort Worth, he said. And so much so that the area's population growth rate is projected to be more than two times the national average in 2019.
"The growth in the population is skewed towards younger folks in Dallas," Roschelle said. "The growth in the 0 to 24 age category is high and in the 25 to 40 category. [The population] is becoming younger, and those people are all the workers for the future."
But as the population in the Metroplex grows, affordable housing is becoming more of an issue. Although affordable single-family homes are a contributor to Dallas-Fort Worth's success, there aren't enough of them, according to the report. The report says focus group respondents in the Dallas area pointed to an increasingly prevalent "not in my backyard" mentality as the reason for the slow down in available workforce housing.
"Dallas traditionally was a place where there was a piece of land, and if someone wanted to build on it, they just built on it," Roschelle said. Now, though, developers are often met with a "you're not building that thing near me" attitude, which tends to add hurdles like cost and time, he said. This contributes to the problem that Dallas-Fort Worth is facing with additions to housing supply not keeping pace with demand.
What the Dallas area has going for it, though, is a diverse and stable employment base thanks to the wide spectrum of industries represented in the area, Roschelle said. The report indicates that the market is expected to have high growth and low volatility when it comes to employment in 2019.
Here are a few things the report says to keep an eye on in 2019:
Issues on the horizon
The number of "For Sale" signs is growing in North Texas' housing market. The Dallas-Fort Worth area has had one of the biggest increases in the country in the number of homes listed for sale, according to Realtor.com. D-FW ranked eighth among the 10 major U.S. markets with the greatest increase in home listings in September, up 14 percent from the same period a year ago, according to Realtor.com. Local real estate market numbers show that almost 26,000 preowned single-family homes were listed for sale in August with North Texas real estate agents. That's the highest volume in six years. Nationwide, home inventories are at a 5-year high, according to Realtor.com. "After years of record-breaking inventory declines, September's almost flat inventory signals a big change in the real estate market," Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, said in the report. "Would-be buyers who had been waiting for a bigger selection of homes for sale may finally see more listings materialize.
North Texas home sales dropped in September by the largest percentage in more than seven years. Preowned home sales in the area fell by 7 percent from September 2017. That was the biggest year-over-year sales decline since early 2011, according to data from the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems. Home sales by real estate agents have been down in three of the last four months. Higher mortgage costs and years of rising home prices have caused some buyers to pull back from the market. Mortgage rates on average are currently about 4.7 percent — the highest level in seven years — and are expected to go higher in 2019. With September's sales decline, preowned home sales by real estate agents in North Texas are now flat with the same period of 2017. A record of more than 106,000 homes sold in the area last year. "We think things are going to be flat," said Dr James Gaines, chief economist for the Real Estate Center. The Dallas-Fort Worth housing market has cooled significantly since early in the year when sales were still up by double-digit percentage rates from 2017 levels.
Home price growth has also slowed. Median home sales prices rose by 4 percent in September from a year earlier to $251,000. For the first nine months of 2018, prices are up 5 percent from the sale period in 2017. With sales declining, the number of houses on the market in North Texas has growth to 25,895 preowned single-family homes listed with real estate agents at the end of last month. That's 16 percent more homes for sale in the area than a year ago. On average it took 44 days to sell the houses that trade in September — up 5 percent from a year earlier. Currently there is about a 3-month supply of homes available for purchase in the more than two dozen North Texas counties included in the survey.
Dallas-Fort Worth was one of the top destinations for domestic migrants from California in 2017, according to a recent study. There were 1,051 moves from coastal California, the home of some of the country's toughest housing markets, to Dallas in the first quarter of 2017, according to Alexandra Lee, a housing analyst with the real estate listing and research site Trulia, which did the study. Out of 19,132 moves out of the region during that time period, 5.5 percent went to D-FW. Houston is also a popular destination for people fleeing the California coast — 3 percent of the migrants in the study came to Texas' most populous city, meaning that 8.5 percent of those in the study came to either Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston. The Trulia report looked at census data for transplants from four coastal California hubs: San Francisco, San Jose, Los Angeles and San Diego. Homes in those markets listed for an average of $720,000 in March 2017, Trulia says, compared to $313,000 in Dallas and $250,000 nationally. The home prices in these cities is clearly a major determinant in whether people leave California and to where they move, Lee said over email, but it's not the be-all and end-all. Texas is a big destination for job-to-job flows, a U.S. Census Bureau-designed statistic that measures flows of employees from one company to another when they've been at each company longer than three quarters. The biggest source of these flows is California, which contributed 6,884 in the first quarter of 2016.
Getting ready to plan for holiday fun in the Dallas-Fort Worth area? Our real estate team is ready to deck the halls, and we've got the details on 10 great events in DFW for this holiday season. While you're planning, you can also click on the city name in any listing to view homes in that community.
Whether you're searching for a home in the city, the suburbs, or anywhere in between, our local real estate team is here to help. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates to buy and sell homes throughout the Dallas-Fort Worth, TX area.
Families with homes in Fort Worth have their choice of Halloween thrills and chills. Your whole family can walk the neighborhood in quirky disguises. You can fill your days and nights with planned events and whimsical, scary adventures. But not too scary!
When the smallest goblins take part in family Halloween fun, it's important to steer clear of super scary events. Traditional haunting venues may frighten young children a bit too much. They may cause little people nightmares that keep the whole family up late at night.
Our real estate agents know a lot about local businesses, attractions, and family-friendly events. We draw on that knowledge to recommend a list of Halloween events that promise fun for the entire family.
When you need reliable information about Fort Worth or Dallas homes for sale, our DFW real estate professionals can help. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates when you're buying or selling your home in Texas.
In a study released earlier this year, GoodCall, a South Carolina data analysis firm, revealed three Collin County cities--Frisco, Allen and Richardson, were among the best cities nationwide to buy forever homes. According to GoodCall, "High-ranking cities are those that generally are affordable with growing home values, growing population, low unemployment and crime rates, and an educated population. Texas is the place to go if you're looking to settle in for the long haul."
Our team at RE/MAX DFW Associates--especially our REALTORS® in Frisco--weren't too surprised with GoodCall's results. We live and work in the local area and love our community.
Let's take a look at why Frisco ranked #3 on their list.
It's not hard to understand why Frisco has earned its name as the"Texas Rising Star." Frisco, a suburb of Dallas, is one of the fastest-growing cities in the United States where home values are rising.
Frisco's residents enjoy living in a community with local pride and small-town charm while being only a short drive from the excitement of living in the DFW Metroplex.
Frisco is home to a multitude of entertainment and attractions including NFL's Dallas Cowboys headquarters and training center, the FC Dallas soccer team, the Frisco RoughRiders Class AA baseball team, the Dallas Stars NHL team, and the Texas Legends.
We've got hiking trails, biking trails and parks located throughout Frisco just waiting to be explore and enjoyed. We've got an outdoor adventure waiting for you: Hiking and biking...you'll find it, taking your kids for an afternoon at the park...got that too. Frisco has received the designation as "Tree City USA" by the National Arbor Day Foundation.
Whether your tastes run from simple to sophisticated, Frisco's culinary scene offers s variety of options for any appetite. Order a burger from Kenny's Burger Joint or an Italian delight from Tavolo Italia. Indulge in Texas BBQ from 3 Stacks Smokehouse or finish the evening at Andy's Frozen Custard.
Frisco is the ultimate shopping mecca. Second only to sports in our community, shopping is one of the most popular things to do in Frisco. Visit Stonebriar Centre in North Dallas if you prefer a shopping mall experience or for the charm of boutique shopping in Frisco, visit the Blue Door Boutique or Lillian Welch.
Frisco continually racks up accolades from nationally recognized publications like CNN, Money Magazine and Men's Journal as "The Best Places to Buy a Forever Home," "One of the Best Place to Live," and even, "#1 Place to Raise an Athlete." USA Today ranked Frisco as the second safest city in Texas to live.
When you're ready to make Frisco your forever home, contact our local experts at RE/MAX DFW Associates to start your home search.
When you enter the Dallas Historic West End District, you still see evidence of its industrial past. The brick buildings that give the area a throwback feel once housed manufacturers and warehouses.
Rehabbing and redecorating gave those buildings a new life as trendy restaurants, shops, museums, and entertainment venues. It's a great area for dining, exploring, or celebrating special events.
Our Dallas REALTORS® live and work in the area. We enjoy the West End District's entertainment venues. Whether you're new to the area or you're a longtime Dallas homes resident, we want to help you discover the benefits of this exciting shopping, dining, and entertainment district.
Here's just a sample of what you'll find.
Walkability, shopping, restaurants, entertainment, low crime, and a reasonable cost of living give the West End District a high livability rating. You'll find your spacious condo or apartment home in one of the district's vintage industrial buildings.
You'll find the unique goods and services you can't find anywhere else.
Walkability is one of the West End District's key features. If walking isn't your thing, you have a few alternatives.
Take a romantic carriage ride
Glide through town on a Segway
Local museums entertain and educate. They offer activities, programs, and entertainment for the whole family.
The West End Historic District offers restaurants for a fun family occasion or a night on the town. Here are few favorites.
We believe it's important to know your community. Our real estate professionals are happy to help. Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates for information about buying or selling your home or if you simply want to learn more about the activities in your community.
Dallas is a big city in every sense of the word, and one of the great things about buying a house here is that the city has a neighborhood to suit every taste. Narrowing down your list to find the right Dallas neighborhood for you is one of the most important steps in the preparation process that leads to finding a home that you will love long-term. Whether you love the arts, the outdoors, or simply want the best education possible for your children, there's a Dallas neighborhood with your name on it.
The first step in finding the right neighborhood is doing your research, and if possible hands-on is preferable to learning from a distance. You can learn about school districts, employment opportunities, and economic indicators online, and then make in-person visits to the neighborhoods that pique your interest. Ahead, we'll provide examples of some of the types of neighborhoods you'll find around Dallas, along with more tips on finding the right match.
Need a hand narrowing down your neighborhood options in Dallas and throughout DFW? Contact RE/MAX DFW Associates to buy and sell homes in Dallas, TX, and for all the help you need to find the right Dallas neighborhood for you.
Are you a first-time homebuyer searching for the perfect spot in Dallas to call your own? Our city has seen a big influx of new residents in recent years and helping new homebuyers is one of the most rewarding aspects of our work at RE/MAX DFW Associates. The real estate market in Dallas is hot with homes of every variety and neighborhoods to suit every taste. So we've assembled our best tips for first-time homebuyers in Dallas to help you find a home you'll love with plenty left in your budget to explore all that this great city has to offer.
Looking for more help navigating the Dallas real estate market for the first time? Our experienced team at RE/MAX DFW Associates is here for you. Contact us to learn everything you need to buy your first home in Dallas.